Win Rate
Glossary · Quant & Stats
Win rate is the percentage of trades that close in profit. On its own it says nothing about profitability: a 90% win rate loses money if the rare losers are large, while a 35% win rate profits when winners run three times the losers. Win rate only carries meaning next to the average risk-reward per trade.
"A 90% win rate with no stop-loss is just a slow countdown to the one trade that takes it all back."
The breakeven win rate is set by your risk-reward: at 1:1 you need above 50%, at 1:2 above 33%, at 1:3 just above 25% — so a strategy that's wrong most of the time can still pay if winners run. Sample size is the other half: 20 trades tell you almost nothing, since even a genuine 50% system throws seven-trade win and loss streaks routinely. Judge a win rate on 100+ logged trades or don't judge it at all.
Win rate is the number retail optimizes because losing feels bad, and it's exactly the number that's easiest to fake: tight targets with wide stops, no stop at all, or averaging down all inflate it while quietly wrecking expectancy. That's how a '92% accurate' Telegram channel works — 92 small wins, then the 8% arrives and takes the account. When someone leads with accuracy, ask what the average loss looks like; if they won't say, you already know.
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Related jargon
Questions
- What is Win Rate in crypto trading?
- Win rate is the percentage of trades that close in profit. On its own it says nothing about profitability: a 90% win rate loses money if the rare losers are large, while a 35% win rate profits when winners run three times the losers. Win rate only carries meaning next to the average risk-reward per trade.
- How would a trader say it?
- A 90% win rate with no stop-loss is just a slow countdown to the one trade that takes it all back.
Part of the Crypto Jargon glossary — every term, decoded the way a trader would say it.
Crypto Jargon
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