{"slug":"risk-on-risk-off","term":"Risk-On / Risk-Off","category":"Macro & Cycles","definition":"Risk-on/risk-off is the market's collective appetite for risk. In risk-on phases, capital flows into equities, crypto, and high-beta assets; in risk-off, it retreats to dollars, bonds, and gold while risk assets sell together. Crypto trades as a risk asset, so regime shifts often move Bitcoin more than crypto-specific news does.","street":"When the world gets scared, nobody cares about your altcoin's roadmap — everything risky sells as one trade.","depth":["The regime shows up in a handful of dials: DXY spiking while equities and crypto fall is risk-off; a soft dollar with stocks grinding up is risk-on. Bonds cut both ways — in a growth scare money hides in Treasuries and yields fall, but in an inflation regime like 2022 rising yields were the thing doing the selling. Either way, risk-off makes correlations converge toward 1: through the 2022 hiking cycle BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq spent long stretches above 0.8, and crypto-native news barely mattered until macro let go.","The expensive mistake is fighting the regime — buying a 'strong chart' on an alt in a risk-off week is how good setups die through no fault of their own. And holding ten alts isn't diversification when everything sells together; it's one position with extra fees. The edge is boring: in risk-off cut size and demand better levels, in risk-on let beta work for you. Establish which regime you're in first — then argue about coins."],"live":{"label":"Check if everything's trading as one","href":"/tools/correlations"},"related":["dxy","correlation","beta","fear-greed-index"]}